CHAIN REACTION IN COMPLEX POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SYSTEMS

This article is devoted to the problem of research of threshold effects in complex social and political systems. As an example of one of these effects we used the branched chain reactions the characteristics and descriptions of which are well studied in chemistry and physics.

In this article, the threshold effects mean such moments of social and political systems existing, when the system suffers critical changes within a relatively short period of time. These effects are: crises, revolutions, coups, etc. An analogy of similar phenomena with branched chain reactions is made. The process of activity centers generation in a chemical reaction is really similar to the process of activity centers generation during mass disturbances, revolutions, etc.

The methods of mathematical modeling based on the models tested in natural sciences are chosen to be the approach to the research. Particularly, so-called stochastic equations capable of expressing through the random function of fluctuations of social and political processes are used. The author also used mathematical tools of description of branched chain reactions in chemistry. Furthermore, the author applied his own socio-energy approach to the social and political systems. With its help the parameterization and boundary conditions of these systems are defined. Our socio-energy approach (SEA) proposed for the description of social systems and processes is a scalable, logic-mathematical instrument, which combines several different methods. It is based on the state estimate of the system or its parts, with the help of specially set parameter - "social energy" or E_soc. This parameter allows to represent endogenous and exogenous processes as the change or redistribution of energy within the system and between systems. The basic principles of the systems approach are used as well.

As a result, the basic equation of social pressure is derived for description of social interactions between individuals and subsystems of individuals.